The year has rolled by relatively quickly - in least in my eyes - and it is time yet again for Japan's biggest race, the Japan Cup. Contested at 2400 meters (about a mile and a half) on turf, it has attracted in the past large fields of the best international runners.
This year's edition of the race, however, has come up a little weak in many opinions. Orfevre, who finished second in the Arc de Triomphe last out, is instead opting for the Arima Kinen (G1) in December as his career finale. Favoritism is instead shifting back and forth between Gold Ship and Gentildonna. Gentildonna, Japan's Horse of the Year last year, is winless this year so far, although all three of her races have been on-the-board finishes. Gold Ship defeated Gentildonna two back but was fifth, far behind the winner, in his last race.
Then there is the hard-knocking Eishin Flash, who found himself a distant third in his last start, the Tenno Sho Autumn (G1). Before that, he was a winner at 1800 meters, beating Just a Way, who would end up defeating him in their next race. (Gentildonna finished second in that race.) Hit the Target looks appealing; two starts back, he defeated eventual Mile Championship (G1) winner Tosen Ra. Like Tosen Ra, this son of King Kamehameha has veteran jockey Yutaka Take aboard, which can only help him.
A pair of fillies are entered here, attempting to give the lovely Gentildonna a run for her money. Verxina, who drew the inside post, won the Victoria Mile (G1) earlier this year, but has run dully in her three starts after that. Denim and Ruby is attempting to win the Japan Cup as a three year-old filly - as Gentildonna did - and gets a four pound weight break from her male rivals. Last out, she was fifth behind Meisho Mambo in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) at Kyoto.
Some other Japanese entries of note include Tosen Jordan, who is coming into this race after two dull starts off a nine month layoff, and Admire Rakti, who finished second in a Grade 2 on this track last time out.
The foreign trio in this race is led by Joshua Tree, who is coming off his third win in the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine. Unfortunately for him, the seven year-old son of Montjeu drew the outside post under Johnny Murtagh. Both Dunaden and Simenon are coming out of the Melbourne Cup (G1), finishing eleventh and fourth, respectively, behind Fiorente. They are making their Tokyo debut here, but Joshua Tree already has a race over the course, finishing unplaced.
While there are some intriguing names in here, and the foreign entries appeal to many, I am sticking with Japanese entries for my top four selections. The invaders look a little suspect - even Simenon, who may be the strongest of the bunch, is racing at a shorter distance than what he'd like. It is definitely a two horse race between Gold Ship and Gentildonna - either one of them could come out on top - with Eishin Flash and Hit the Target playing strong supporting roles.
Emily's Selections:
13 - Gold Ship
7 - Gentildonna
4 - Eishin Flash
16 - Hit the Target
Additional note: I picked the 13, Danon Shark, in the Mile Championship. Obviously, he didn't win (but finished third!). Hopefully this traditionally unlucky number can give me some luck here with Gold Ship. Crossing my fingers!
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