Monday, November 4, 2013

2013 Melbourne Cup and Insights by Guest Blogger Stephen Wong

In just a matter of hours, 24 horses will go to the post for Australia's marquee racing event, the Melbourne Cup.  It is the ultimate test of stamina, contested over 3200 meters (two miles), and has been run every year since 1861, won by champions like Carbine, Phar Lap, and Makybe Diva.  Last year's winner, Green Moon, starts in this race, as does the 2011 winner Dunaden.

Providing some excellent insight on the runners in the race is guest blogger Stephen Wong.  Stephen has a master's degree in investment management and also writes for www.fasttrack.hk, a racing page covering everything from horses to fashion to drama in the event.  He has a very good grasp on international racing and will give us a strong opinion on each of the runners in this race.   



Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m

Group 1. Apprentices cannot claim



No     Horse (Barrier)            Jockey               Trainer              Weight        Price

 1       Dunaden (1)                   J Spencer            M Delzangles       58.5          41.00

 2       Green Moon (10)           B Prebble            R Hickmott          57.5          35.00

 3       Red Cadeaux (23)          G Mosse             E Dunlop              56.5          51.00

 4       Sea Moon (7)                 S Arnold             R Hickmott           56.5          16.00

 5       Brown Panther (6)         R Kingscote        T Dascombe          55            18.00

 6       Fiorente (5)                    D Oliver              Ms G Waterhouse 55              7.00

 7       Foreteller (15)                C Newitt             C J Waller             55             26.00

 8       Dandino (4)                    R Moore             M Botti                 54.5          11.00

 9       Ethiopia (14)                  R McLeod           P G Carey            54.5          71.00

10      Fawkner (8)                    N Hall                 R Hickmott          54.5          16.00

11      Mourayan (19)                B Avdulla           R Hickmott          54.5         126.00

12      Seville (9)                       H Bowman          R Hickmott         54.5          17.00

13      Super Cool (13)              C Brown              M Kavanagh       54.5          31.00

14      Masked Marvel (2)         M Rodd               R Hickmott            54          35.00

15      Mount Athos (22)           C Williams          L M Cumani          54          10.00

16      Royal Empire (11)          K McEvoy           Saeed Bin Suroor  54          21.00

17      Voleuse De Couers (21)  J McDonald        M D Moroney        54          16.00

18      Hawkspur (18)                J Cassidy             C J Waller           53.5          14.00

19      Simenon (12)                  R Hughes             W P Mullins       53.5          17.00

20      Ibicenco (17)                   L Nolen                P G Moody              53        51.00

21      Verema (3)                      C Lemaire             A De Royer-Dupre  53        15.00

22      Dear Demi (16)              C Munce                C E Connors            51        17.00

23      Tres Blue (20)                T Berry                  Ms G Waterhouse    51        23.00

24      Ruscello (24)             (a)C Schofield            E Walker                  50        61.00



Odds courtesy TAB



Comments by Stephen Wong (Twitter: @SW064351)

 1 Dunaden: Best runs have been in Australia, winning three of four starts. Weight is against him but will conserve ground with the gun draw and be running on late. Must be respected.

 2 Green Moon: Lead-up form this campaign has been suspect and must carry 3kg additional. Needs to lift.

 3 Red Cadeaux: Veteran gelding who went down by the slimmest of margins two years ago. Carries top weight and wide draw only makes task tougher.

 4 Sea Moon: Runs of late have been progressively better. Can lift Cup if he can reproduce Hardwicke form.

 5 Brown Panther: British galloper who has won at the Group 2 level over this distance. Will be competitive the but the pace could prove his undoing.

 6 Fiorente: Hasn't set a foot wrong this preparation and showed he can be effective at the sharper trips. Massive hope.

 7 Foreteller: Distance is a query and can't have at this stage.

 8 Dandino: Hit the line strongly in Caulfield Cup and will get a solidly run race to suit. Was unplaced over this distance two years ago but should be included in the exotics.

 9 Ethiopia: Form this term has been inconsistent despite showing improvement in Lexus. Looking elsewhere.

10 Fawkner: Gets relief in the weights despite winning Caulfield Cup in dominant fashion. Keep safe.

11 Mourayan: Run in Mackinnon on Saturday was disappointing and looks well held.

12 Seville: Scored in Metropolitan but the form of beaten runners since has collapsed. Under the odds.

13 Super Cool: Showed plenty of promise as a three-year-old but pedigree suggests trip will prove too far.

14 Masked Marvel: Finished second-last in Cox Plate after firing up early. Will likely have to commit early from the low draw. Pass.

15 Mount Athos: Got into the clear when it was all too late last year. Must overcome a wide draw but will be flying late. Go close.

16 Royal Empire: Consistent galloper who has yet to run a poor race this preparation but is unproven this company. Hard to have.

17 Voleuse De Coeurs: Thrashed rivals in Irish St Leger while toting 61kg. Has proven form over trip and must be respected.

18 Hawkspur: Forgive Caulfield Cup run as he fell victim to a troubled trip. Still needs to find a few lengths to compete with these.

19 Simenon: Former hurdler who kept grinding to the line in Herbert Power. Will strip fitter and is one of the leading chances.

20 Ibicenco: Won Geelong Cup but this is a different kettle of fish. Happy to let him go.

21 Verema: Has class on her side but was comfortably held by Cavalryman in Dubai Gold Cup. Place claims look best.

22 Dear Demi: Brilliant run to flash home for third in Mackinnon on Saturday. Place best.

23 Tres Blue: Gets in carrying postage stamp weight and is worth some thought.

24 Ruscello: Backs-up on three days rest and is entered here as an afterthought. Drawn the carpark and will be pestered on the lead. Sure to find these too strong.



Stephen's Selections:

 6 Fiorente

 4 Sea Moon

19 Simenon

15 Mount Athos

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