Breeders' Cup Saturday Selections and Thoughts

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (12:05 PM PT)
1) Artemis Agrotera (3-1)
2) Rosalind (8-1)
3) Designer Legs (30-1)
4) Secret Compass (6-1)
5) Ria Antonia (30-1)
6) Concave (15-1)
7) Untapable (5-1)
8) Scandalous Act (8-1)
9) Sweet Reason (5-2)
10) She's a Tiger (6-1)

This race, in my opinion, lacks the talent that its male counterpart has, but it still should be a nice race.  The Frizette 1-2, Artemis Agrotera and Sweet Reason, are here, as is Designer Legs, who won the Adirondack (G2) at Saratoga via DQ, and Untapable, the winner of the Pocahontas (G2) at Churchill Downs.  She's a Tiger from the West and Scandalous Act from the East should leap out to set a quick pace, which may benefit them if this speed bias at Santa Anita holds up.  Concave switches surfaces to try dirt for the first time, and Rosalind gives graded stakes company another shot after a third in the Pocahontas behind Untapable. 

It took a while for me to get a concrete pick in this race, but finally, I decided to go with Asmussen's Untapable.  He knows how to win this race, capturing the event with My Miss Aurelia in 2011, and Untapable looked nice in her last start - at this same distance - rating off the pace and passing Stonetastic in the shadow of the wire to win.  Even more impressively, she was rank early, being held back after a debut where she led most of the way to win, and bobbed and weaved greenly throughout the entire length of the homestretch.  That should have been a good learning experience for her, and Asmussen will have worked the kinks out by now.  Of the speedy horses in this field, I think She's the Tiger will be hanging on the longest; she was just narrowly defeated by Secret Compass in the Chandelier (G1) after being on the lead.  She's quick but, in her last, showed stamina as well.  Sweet Reason was the recipient of a poor trip in the Frizette, where she was probably better than the winner (who isn't a bad filly herself).  She should move forward off of that effort. 

7-10-9-1 (Untapable - She's a Tiger - Sweet Reason - Artemis Agrotera)


Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (12:43 PM PT)
1) Dank (5-2)
2) Romantica (6-1)
3) Tiz Flirtatious (7-2)
4) Alterite (10-1)
5) Lady of Shamrock (20-1)
6) Marketing Mix (7-2)
7) Laughing (8-1)
8) Emollient (12-1)
9) Qushchi (20-1)
10) Kitten's Dumplings (12-1)

This is a fine field of ten lined up for this ten furlong event.  With The Fugue going to tackle the boys later in the day, favoritism passed over to Dank, who ran away with the Beverly D. (G1) in her American debut, thwarting Marketing Mix in the process.  Then Marketing Mix came back in the Rodeo Drive (G1) and suffered a narrow defeat to Tiz Flirtatious.  Lady of Shamrock comes back for another go; 5th last year, she seems a shell of her three year-old self.  Kitten's Dumplings and Alterite exit 1-2 from the QEII (G1) at Keeneland, and Emollient returns to the turf after a sharp win in the Spinster (G1) on polytrack.  Juddmonte has won this race a number of times; this year, they send out Romantica, a Grade 1 winner who was seventh last out to eventual Arc de Triomphe (G1) winner Treve. 

In a race where pace is key - think either Intercontinental's wire to wire victory in 2005 or Forever Together flying past at the wire in 2008 - we must look and see whether there's going to be much of a pace in this race.  From what I'm seeing, there won't be.  The only speed horse I see in this horse is Laughing, a mare who's led at every pole in her last three victories.  Her ability to slow the pace down and then kick clear in the stretch is thoroughly European in nature.  Quick-footed Marketing Mix may move up to challenge her, as I think no rival trainer wants Laughing to get away, but even if Laughing is pressed, she still has that devastating closing kick to leave her rivals in the dust.  No doubt about it, it's Laughing on top for me.  I'll take Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix after that - the former is steadily improving, and they both love this track.  Dank was marvelous in the Beverly D. and is a deserving favorite here, but I still give the edge to the three mares listed before her.

7-3-6-1 (Laughing - Tiz Flirtatious - Marketing Mix - Dank)


Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (1:21 PM PT)
1) Renee's Titan (30-1)
2) Book Review (6-1)
3) Starship Truffles (15-1)
4) Dance Card (8-1)
5) Teddy's Promise (6-1)
6) Ismene (20-1)
7) Summer Applause (12-1)
8) Dance to Bristol (5-1)
9) Judy the Beauty (6-1)
10) Great Hot (20-1)
11) Groupie Doll (5-2)
12) Sweet Lulu (8-1)

A field of eleven others faces defending champion Groupie Doll here.  Although still brilliant, the favorite doesn't seem as dominant over this field as she did last year, and certainly is vulnerable.  Second choice Dance to Bristol's winning streak was snapped last time out, but the four year-old filly has shown unbelievable heart in her career, only finishing worse than second once in 19 starts.  Then there is Judy the Beauty, who took a giant step forward at Keeneland, leaving Groupie Doll in her wake in third, and Teddy's Promise, who will be looking to go all the way on the lead.  It is a star-studded field lined up to take on the female sprint champion.  Can Groupie Doll give us that old brilliance we so enjoyed in last year's Breeders' Cup, or will someone take her glory on Saturday?

Teddy's Promise is nice on the lead but I think her better distances are shorter than this seven furlongs.  I am skeptical about Summer Applause; though she likes to run on the lead, these speedy fillies may leave her behind as she switches from routes to a sprint.  The speed horse I see staying the longest is Ismene, who finished a credible second in a mile allowance two races back.  Truthfully, though, I'll pray that the speed bias doesn't rear its head in this race because I believe the class of the field will be coming from behind.  Buff Bradley will have Groupie Doll cranked for this race - it's been her goal all along - but is 2013 Groupie Doll good enough to win it?  Watch her dominate and prove me wrong, but I'll be looking for someone to beat her here.  I finally settled on Dance to Bristol, and that choice is almost purely sentimental.  (My other sentimental pick in this Breeders' Cup comes later on the card.)  I've been impressed with her all year, and a win here would just cap off a wonderful campaign for very nice connections.  Groupie Doll will probably be my second choice here; no matter how much she might have regressed from last year to now, she's still an amazing filly.

8-11-2-6 (Dance to Bristol - Groupie Doll - Book Review - Ismene)


Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (2:05 PM PT)
1) Jeranimo (12-1)
2) Rock Me Baby (30-1)
3) Chips All In (5-1)
4) Reneesgotzip (5-1)
5) Caracortado (8-1)
6) Boat Trip (8-1)
7) Tightend Touchdown (12-1)
8) Handsome Mike (30-1)
9) Capo Bastone (8-1)
10) Havelock (10-1)
11) Spring to the Sky (30-1)
12) Mizdirection (4-1)
13) Dimension (12-1)
14) Unbridled's Note (8-1)

Here's another wide-open race and, like the Dirt Mile the day before, a field that I had absolutely no idea how to tear apart.  So many of these horses could jump up and win.  There is the defending champion, Mizdirection, who is coming off a layoff just like last year, and runner-up Unbridled's Note is back for more as well.  Reneesgotzip, who finished 3rd last year, has got even more "zip" than she did last year.  Chips All In is 2 for 3 on this downhill course, including a game victory over Boat Trip and Unbridled's Note last out.  Jeranimo tries his hand at the downhill course, and Capo Bastone, after a fast-closing win in the King's Bishop (G1) on dirt, will see if he can make lightning strike twice for his connections.  Turf sprint specialists Tightend Touchdown and Havelock are here, and old warrior Caracortado is making his second start off a lengthy layoff.  It'll be a fun race - a quick race - and so often in this race, the winner is decided an instant before the wire.

I was talking to someone on Twitter who was of the opinion that Reneesgotzip would go to the front and stay there.  The more I looked at the form, the more I could see his point.  Although there are speed types in this race - Tightend Touchdown and Spring to the Sky, and even Chips All In or Mizdirection could lay close - she is probably the fastest of them, and could sprint away to an easy lead.  The question is...will anyone be able to catch her?  I don't think so.  She's improved by leaps and bounds since last year, running away from the competition effortlessly in her last two starts.  She is coming into this race off a bit of a layoff, but she came off a much longer layoff earlier this year and effortlessly defeating Executiveprivilege, who is no slouch.  The other usual characters should do well here - I like to see horses in here with downhill experience, rather than a lack of such.  Sentimentally, I'll be watching out for Caracortado, who did decently in his first start after more than a year and a half off.

4-12-3-14 (Reneesgotzip - Mizdirection - Chips All In - Unbridled's Note)


Breeders' Cup Juvenile (2:43 PM PT)
1) Smarty's Echo (20-1)
2) Dance With Fate (8-1)
3) Mexikoma (12-1)
4) New Year's Day (8-1)
5) Bond Holder (8-1)
6) Tap It Rich (6-1)
7) Cleburne (SCR)
8) Conquest Titan (30-1)
9) Rum Point (30-1)
10) We Miss Artie (8-1)
11) Medal Count (20-1)
12) Diamond Bachelor (12-1)
13) Havana (5-2)
14) Strong Mandate (6-1)

This, in my opinion, is a more talented field than the Juvenile Fillies earlier on the card.  Even though we're missing a couple of names, like Honor Code, who's opting for the Remsen, it still is a nice race.  Churchill stakes winner Cleburne scratched on Friday, but we still have a nice field of 13, led by Champagne (G1) winner Havana and Hopeful (G1) winner Strong Mandate, who didn't do so hot in the Champagne last out, finishing way off the board.  Generating a lot of buzz is recent maiden winner Tap It Rich, who pulled away nicely to win last out.  He'll have to do a lot to win this race off of just one start, but many reckon that he is a special horse.  Mexikoma also broke his maiden last out in an impressive open-lengths romp at Delaware Park.  We Miss Artie tries dirt for the second time in his career after a nice win in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.  California gives us a plethora of nice horses - besides Tap It Rich, there is Bond Holder and Dance With Fate, the 1-2 finishers in the Chandelier (G1) at Santa Anita, New Year's Day, an allowance winner for Baffert, and Diamond Bachelor, who makes a surface switch after some stakes tries on turf.

The two favorites - and speed horses, at that - will break from the two outside posts.  It will probably create a scramble and a hot pace that will set up well for stalkers and closers. Havana looked pretty weary-legged to me in deep stretch at Belmont, just barely holding off the late closing Honor Code (who had terrible luck in that race, anyway) and after his terrible post draw, I am flabbergasted that he is the morning line favorite.  I loved what I saw from Tap It Rich's racing debut; he made a strong move on the turn, wore down the leaders and kept going.  Tapit has a nice record in juvenile races at the Breeders' Cup, so his pedigree certainly helps him as well.  Although it will be a tall order for him to win this race in only his second start, he looked very seasoned breaking his maiden and I believe he will do well here.  A horse that has looked pretty nice to me in the mornings - as far as I can tell with a shoddy Internet connection! - is Diamond Bachelor, who is poised to take a nice step forward in this race.  Although Bond Holder's latest race was slow, he showed heart in wearing down his rivals, and he has a home field advantage.  Mexikoma was very mature in his maiden win at Delaware.  I don't trust the two outside favorites; I believe they'll burn themselves out in the scramble towards the first turn.

6-12-5-3 (Tap It Rich - Diamond Bachelor - Bond Holder - Mexikoma)


Breeders' Cup Turf (3:22 PM PT)
1) Vagabond Shoes (15-1)
2) Teaks North (30-1)
3) Twilight Eclipse (20-1)
4) Little Mike (6-1)
5) Skyring (30-1)
6) Tale of a Champion (30-1)
7) The Fugue (3-1)
8) Point of Entry (4-1)
9) Indy Point (9-2)
10) Big Blue Kitten (6-1)
11) Magician (8-1)
12) Real Solution (8-1)

This is probably my most anticipated race out of the fourteen, for it features the return from injury of Point of Entry, who has generously been made the 4-1 morning line second-choice.  With better racing luck, he wins last year's edition of this race.  Little Mike is back to defend his title; after a poor first half of the year, he rebounded to win the Joe Hirsch (G1) last out over Ramsey runners Real Solution and Big Blue Kitten, both of which are near the top of the turf male division.  Indy Point, after a disastrous Arlington Million (G1), is back to prove his speed (two out of his three American races have been absolutely sensational).  And one filly is here to prove that this may not be such a boy's club after all - The Fugue returns to Santa Anita after a poor trip in last year's Filly and Mare Turf.  This year, she has done exceptionally well in Europe, including a win last out over top male Al Kazeem and Irish Derby winner Trading Leather.  She is the morning line favorite for this race, but certainly won't run away from this competitive field she'll be facing on Saturday.

There's not much pace in this race, apart from 2012's champion, Little Mike.  Point of Entry will probably sit closer than he did last year, waiting to strike.  Although The Fugue does look tough in here, here is where my other sentimental choice comes into play - why, Point of Entry, of course!  Shug McGaughey enters his horses wisely, and Point of Entry wouldn't be here if his trainer didn't think he had a shot.  I am over the moon with his return to the racetrack, and I really hope he does well.  The Fugue will be in the mix, but my second choice is actually Indy Point, although it is a cautious selection.  (I had him in the Arlington Million and, well, got my heart broken!)  He is a quick horse indeed and will relish the fast track he'll get on Saturday.  I decided to bypass Little Mike in my top four and pick one of the two Ramsey runners, settling for Real Solution, who I think continues to get better and better with each start he's had in the United States.  My eyes, however, will only be for that big dark bay stallion, Point of Entry.

8-9-7-12 (Point of Entry - Indy Point - The Fugue - Real Solution)


Breeders' Cup Sprint (4:01 PM PT)
1) Justin Phillip (4-1)
2) The Lumber Guy (12-1)
3) Gentlemen's Bet (8-1)
4) Majestic Bet (20-1)
5) Sum of the Parts (12-1)
6) Bahamian Squall (10-1)
7) Private Zone  (3-1)
8) Fast Bullet (6-1)
9) Secret Circle (4-1)
10) Wine Police (30-1)
11) Trinniberg (8-1)
12) Laugh Track (20-1)

Twelve of America's speediest runners line up here, eager to take a shot at each other.  Most of these horses have been running against each other all year, save for Secret Circle, who is making an ambitious second start off a long layoff.  He won 2011's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint - a race no longer run - and did decently on the Triple Crown trail of 2012 before entering a layoff that lasted more than a year.  Just recently, he returned in huge fashion, zipping a six furlong allowance event in 1:07 and change.  Many people fancy him in this race, but the favorite is Private Zone, who went wire to wire to win the Vosburgh (G1) last time out over Justin Phillip.  Trinniberg, last year's Sprint winner, is back, but seems to have lost a step between then and now.  The Lumber Guy also returns; he was the game runner-up in this race last year.  Fast Bullet comes back off a layoff after a poor showing in the Forego (G1) at Saratoga. 

If Trinniberg was more consistent this year, he would most definitely be in my top four.  It breaks my heart to leave him out; I love the horse so, but I don't think he'll make nearly as good of a showing as he did last year.  The speedy Private Zone is my choice.  His front-running victory in the Vosburgh impressed me immensely, and the speed bias prevalent at Santa Anita should only help him take a step forward off of that effort.  You can never count out Justin Phillip, who has finished on the board in 21 of his 31 lifetime starts.  In fact, look out also for his stablemate Fast Bullet, who likes to run on the lead and may test the favorite throughout.  Secret Circle will be perfectly primed for this race.  His connections know how to win the Sprint; the Pegram-owned, Baffert-trained Midnight Lute is the only horse to win two Breeders' Cup Sprints.  It should be a great race, and speed should definitely play a factor here.

7-9-8-1 (Private Zone - Secret Circle - Fast Bullet - Justin Phillip)


Breeders' Cup Mile (4:40 PM PT)
1) No Jet Lag (8-1)
2) Silentio (20-1)
3) Silver Max (5-1)
4) Obviously (10-1)
5) Olympic Glory (4-1)
6) Bright Thought (20-1)
7) He Be Fire N Ice (15-1)
8) Wise Dan (EVEN)
9) Cristoforo Colombo (15-1)
10) Za Approval (15-1)

After a loss to Silver Max on wet polytrack last time out, Wise Dan is back to defend his Breeders' Cup Mile title, chasing a second Horse of the Year title as well.  He has been brilliant this year, setting a sparkling track record at Woodbine and battling large weight spreads to defeat his under-matched rivals.  Here he meets Obviously, his contemporary on the West Coast who has been wonderful all year, save for a defeat by No Jet Lag last time out.  After defections of Toronado, Mshawish and Flotilla, the Europeans send two in here, including the very nice miler Olympic Glory, coming into this race out of a Group 1 victory.  Bright Thought intrigues many by coming off a layoff; six and a half months ago, he set a world record for twelve furlongs at Santa Anita. 

Despite the talented group he has to face, I believe Wise Dan will win himself another Mile, and do it easily, at that.  He struggled with a last minute surface switch last time out, losing to loose on the lead Silver Max, but if he runs to his Woodbine form, he is much the best here.  Eyewitnesses at Santa Anita say he looks great; pictures of him in good flesh are all over social media.  Silver Max will have company up front in Obviously and Bright Thought, so that should set up a nice pace for Wise Dan to close into.  Olympic Glory will be tough here; he certainly deserves his second-choice status on the morning line.  No Jet Lag improves with every start, and, even though he is coming off a layoff and could do anything here, I rather like Bright Thought, who is clearly a talented horse, according to his form.  Nevertheless, I think they all will be running for second behind reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan.

8-5-1-6 (Wise Dan - Olympic Glory - No Jet Lag - Bright Thought)


Breeders' Cup Classic (5:35 PM PT)
1) Last Gunfighter (20-1)
2) Paynter (12-1)
3) Planteur (20-1)
4) Moreno (15-1)
5) Declaration of War (10-1)
6) Mucho Macho Man (5-1)
7) Fort Larned (6-1)
8) Palace Malice (10-1)
9) Game On Dude (8-5)
10) Will Take Charge (12-1)
11) Ron the Greek (SCR)
12) Flat Out (12-1)

Finally, we have the big one, and the big horse here is Game On Dude, looking to redeem himself after a disappointing finish as the favorite last year.  The Awesome Again gelding is better than ever, and he gets the services of Mike Smith, the Breeders' Cup's leading jockey by wins.  All of this shouldn't hurt him in the least, but he'll have to contend with defending champion Fort Larned, who grabbed the lead last year after Game On Dude's bad break and went wire to wire to win.  Mucho Macho Man finished second to Fort Larned and has come back this year big and strong, winning the Awesome Again (G1) by open lengths last out.  The old warrior Flat Out takes another stab at the Classic, and Declaration of War flies the flag for Europe as he makes his first start on dirt.  Then there are the three year-olds - Palace Malice, Will Take Charge and Moreno, each of whom could be a serious factor against their older rivals.  And Paynter is here - the miracle of the racing world, he came back from near death towards the end of last year and has since proven that even though you've been knocked down, you can still manage to get right back up.  This race, as always, is full of great stories and will make for a terrific event on Saturday evening.

Now, let's get down to business.  Game On Dude is a deserving favorite, after the year he's had, but many people are wary of him after he flunked the test in 2012.  Fort Larned is coming into this race a sharp horse, but he will have to contend with both Game On Dude - provided good racing luck - and Moreno, who should also be near the lead.  Declaration of War has the pedigree to handle dirt and could be very dangerous, although it is worth noting that in several tries, his connections have yet to win a Classic, despite good seconds from Giant's Causeway (2000) and Henrythenavigator (2008).  The best of the three year-olds, in my opinion, is the steadily improving Will Take Charge, who gets better and more mature with every start he makes.  Palace Malice was a strong second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last time out and could also be a threat.  Mucho Macho Man is live after his runaway victory last out, but look out for Paynter, who was fanned wide in that same race and closed valiantly to finish second.  Back on his home track, with better luck, he might do very well here, and I hear he's coming into this race rather well.  It is a tough race, indeed, but I'll put my faith in Game On Dude, who will get a great ride, a (hopefully) good trip and who, with a win in this race, will undoubtedly be Horse of the Year.

9-6-10-8 (Game On Dude - Mucho Macho Man - Will Take Charge - Palace Malice)