Friday, September 27, 2013

Emily's Quick Super Saturday (Belmont) Breakdown

Like I've made clear in the title, I'm going to make this quick and dirty, skipping the undercard races in favor of the stakes races later in the day.  Six wonderful races with many wonderful horses await us tomorrow - not to mention the plethora of stakes races elsewhere in the country.  For many, tomorrow will be a critical point in the race for a championship.

We'll start with the very first stakes race of the day.  The Beldame Invitational, which is the contest I'm looking most forward to, only attracted six horses, but it features the highly anticipated first meeting between reigning distaff queen Royal Delta and the best three year-old - maybe of either gender - in the country, Princess of Sylmar.  It all comes down to these two, I think, who are neck and shoulders above the rest of their competition.  Many think that Royal Delta will get away to an easy lead on her way to another open-lengths victory.  Upon looking at the sheets, though, Lady Cohiba, who breaks from the outside, could give Delta some company on the front end.  Lady Cohiba is coming off of a wire to wire victory in the Glen Falls at Saratoga and does her best running on the lead.  While not nearly in the same class as the Beldame favorite, she could jeopardize what looks to be an easy lead for Royal Delta. 

In order for Princess of Sylmar to challenge Royal Delta, she must have a decent pace to run at and hope that her elder rival is running out of gas for the lead, something that's not likely to happen.  I'm going to put Royal Delta on top here, with Princess of Sylmar making her patented flashy run on the far turn and getting up for second.  Centring and And Why Not, who have found themselves looking at Royal Delta's tail a few times in the past, will probably be battling for a show spot behind the top two females.  Chalky, I know, but that's how this race is set up.  Personally, I care less about prices and returns in this race as much as I care about seeing these two incredible racehorses face each other.

Next we have the Kelso, a dirt mile stake that has drawn the most attention as the return spot for Graydar.  This Pletcher trainee is regarded by some as the best horse in the country, but this colt has been plagued with setbacks, having raced only five times in about a year and a half's time.  There are many other interesting horses in this field, including the coupled LaPenta pair on the rail, which includes Jackson Bend.  Jackson Bend, who suffered a major setback last summer at Saratoga, is finally starting to figure this racing thing out again after a strong second in the Forego (G1) last time out.    A horse I really like in this race is Souper Speedy, who is coming off of a nose victory in an allowance at Saratoga.  He seems to really like Belmont, as most of his strongest performances have come at this track.  Hymn Book is another Belmont lover in this field, but a horse to keep an eye on is the outside starter, Brujo de Olleros.  After shipping up from Uruguay and a few rough first starts here, he switched to the hands of Richard Mettee and, last time out, romped in a stake at Del Mar.  If he takes to the dirt well, he could be dangerous.

It is a very ambitious spot for Graydar to come back, even if he is "the greatest horse in the country."  He will probably go to the lead, and Souper Speedy will be close to him.  For tomorrow, I'm going to go with Souper Speedy over Graydar, with the plucky Jackson Bend running on late for a piece of it as well.  This race will hopefully condition Graydar well for races yet to come; if he puts in a dull effort tomorrow, he should be much sharper next time out.

The Vosburgh is an incredibly nice race full of some nice sprinters.  In my opinion, this could just replace the Breeders' Cup Sprint, and I wouldn't mind.  (Actually, I'd like to see Trinniberg in it...but then again, I'm biased.)  This scattered division is in dire need of a clear leader, with the end of the year soon approaching.  Two horses that I had a lot of confidence about in their last starts - Forty Tales and Justin Phillip, who break 1-2 from the rail in this race - weakened in their last starts, failing to win.  This is also the second race off of a layoff for The Lumber Guy, last year's winner of the Vosburgh.  With speedy Private Zone, Strapping Groom and The Lumber Guy in this race, this six panel event should set up nicely for closers, two of which I've already mention (hint, hint...the two on the rail!)

Despite all my touting of said closers, though, I'm going with Bahamian Squall, who got a bit of a rough trip in the Vanderbilt last time out behind Justin Phillip.  He, too, will be sitting off of the pace, and lessons were hopefully learned from his troubled last start, hopefully well enough to put him in a better place this time.  Out of all the speed horses, I fancy Strapping Groom to hold on the best.  Justin Phillip should do much better cutting back a furlong tomorrow.  Forty Tales is a nice horse, but it might be a little too much too soon for this three year-old to face seasoned older horses.

It is very hard to see past Laughing in the Flower Bowl.  Since her layoff, she's been better than ever before, winning all three of her races since then in wire to wire fashion.  With a marked lack of pace in this race, it's too easy to imagine this daughter of Dansili snatching the lead and not looking back.  The question is...who to play underneath her?  She is coupled with stablemate Tannery, a very nice filly who is dropping a little in class after facing males like Big Blue Kitten and Twilight Eclipse in her last start.  Goldberg's entry will probably have a stranglehold on favoritism come race time.  There is the very consistent three year-old White Rose on the outside, who has finished in the money in all but one of her eight lifetime starts.  Just to her inside is Qushchi, who turned heads with a sharp win at Saratoga last time out.  Somali Lemonade, who has become a popular name in this division, could also make some noise at a generous 8-1.  Despite all this, I don't see anyone getting past Laughing here if she is allowed to be loose on the lead.

The Joe Hirsch is a bang up race.  We've got all the leaders of the male turf route division here, save for the sidelined Point of Entry.  If Boisterous scratches, the Phipps still have Imagining, a pacesetter with five career wins, three of which were at Belmont.  Then there is Ramsey Farm's three-pronged assault on this Grade 1 with the formidable pair of Big Blue Kitten and Real Solution and a rabbit, Joes Blazing AaronNutello could improve in his second start in the United States, and Slumber also is making his second start after nearly a year's layoff.  Twilight Eclipse, who's danced all the big dances, is here, and King Kreesa, who gave Wise Dan a real fight last time out in the Fourstardave, is stretching out to twelve furlongs.  Finally, we have Little Mike on the outside, who's trying to regain his Breeders' Cup Turf-winning form after four sub-par starts this year.  So many names to choose from...

To me, the choice has been clear since the entries came out.  The problem is, if I chose to bet this race, I wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting a good price.  Real Solution is a horse who is improving with every start.  His grit and determination to try to get to the wire first reminds me of English Channel, who won this race six years ago (has it really been that long??).  His last race over this circuit was a tremendous third-place effort to Point of Entry and Optimizer.  Big Blue Kitten should be tough as well - in fact, I would not hesitate in choosing the Ramseys 1-2 here.  Their rabbit should do good enough work on the front end for them to close into; plus, he has King Kreesa, who will probably not get the distance, Little Mike and Imagining to keep him company on the front end.  To pick up minor awards, I really like the former Euro-based horses, Nutello and Slumber.

Finally, we've come to the big dance - the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Morning line favorite Cross Traffic, who went wire to wire in the Whitney last time out, comes into this race off of a small layoff after being withdrawn from Woodward consideration.  Second choice Flat Out is attempting to become only the second horse, behind Kelso, to win more than two Jockey Club Gold Cups.  Then there are the three year old classic winners, Palace Malice and Orb, who are looking to regain their spring and summer successes with a strong showing against older horses.  My genuine love and respect for some of these horses is getting in the way of an objective look at this race, but I'll give it my best shot!

Many argue that Cross Traffic got an easy lead in the Whitney, and as much as I love that horse, they are right.  This time, he'll have to deal with Vitoria Olimpica, who does his best running on or near the pace, and Alpha - if he goes to the front - who won a muddy edition of the Woodward last time out.  The pace may not be hot enough for late closers like Ron the Greek to run into successfully, but it sets up perfectly for pace stalkers like Palace Malice and Flat Out.  Orb, who gets the services of Javier Castellano for the first time, should run even sharper after his layoff performance in the Travers, which really wasn't that bad.  To me, though, this race comes down to Flat Out, who absolutely loves Belmont and is in prime condition to step into history tomorrow.  Palace Malice, a colt who is arguably the best of his crop, won't be far behind.  Cross Traffic is classy enough to hold on for a check.

That's all I have to say about the races tomorrow.  I'll have my butt parked at a simulcasting facility watching these races with baited breath.  Hope you enjoy the terrific day of races tomorrow!

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