Earlier this week, 12 out of the 14 fields were set for the 30th Breeders' Cup Championships; the Distaff and Classic posts were drawn later than evening. Some connections left disappointed; others pleased. We saw favorites end up on the outside and speed horses draw right next to each other. As I said in my pre-entry preview videos, I would wait to truly break down these races until the fields were drawn. Well, here we are...it's time to get cracking.
Breeders' Cup Marathon (1:45 PM PT)
1) Old Time Hockey (8-1)
2) Cease (8-1)
3) Commander (6-1)
4) Ever Rider (ARG) (7-2)
5) Suns Out Guns Out (10-1)
6) Indian Jones (5-1)
7) London Bridge (8-1)
8) Blueskiesnrainbows (6-1)
9) Pool Play (8-1)
10) Worldly (6-1)
Here's the race that I'm definitely going to have the most trouble with, picking it apart. It's a very wide open race that really looks - to me at least - that any one of these horses could jump up and win. My best chance is to just go down the line and see what these horses have done, so we'll start with Old Time Hockey, who exits that very fast race won by Indy Point (who goes Saturday in the Turf) at ten furlongs. If I think correctly, this will be the farthest Old Time Hockey has gone in his life; trainer Proctor sent him through a mile workout on the 18th in preparation for the marathon event. Cease is also stretching out, coming out of a win in a seven furlong allowance at Belmont Park. Commander has good tactical speed but will have to compete with Blueskiesnrainbows and possibly two foreigners, Ever Rider and London Bridge, for the lead. Suns Out Guns Out wowed in a one mile allowance at Parx last out, but finished a less than stellar fourth behind Eldaafer in the Greenwood (G3) before that. Indian Jones was second by a hard-fought nose in the Greenwood and is very deserving of his second-choice status here. Pool Play and Wordly have ran with the best in their careers, but it's been quite a while since either of them have won.
As any foreign shipper without a start in the States, Ever Rider is both intriguing and dangerous, especially with his frontrunning style (a drastic change from fellow Argentinian and last year's winner Calidoscopio). A win in a routing Grade 2 last out was enough to make him the morning line favorite at a tepid 7-2. If the pace heats up on the front end, Indian Jones might make some noise late; the son of Smarty Jones may be the best American hopeful in this race. London Bridge cannot be ignored, for although he is just a winner on turf, his pedigree (sired by Arch with a 4x4 cross to Alydar) suggests he may take well to the dirt. However - and it gives me great pleasure to say this - I am selecting one of two of the Smarty Jones sons in here to win. Give me Indian Jones, and I should get an even better price on him on Friday afternoon. Without defending champion Eldaafer in here, no one horse should hold strong favoritism in the Marathon.
6-4-8-9 (Indian Jones - Ever Rider - Blueskiesnrainbows - Pool Play)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (2:25 PM PT)
1) All Cash (30-1)
2) Giovanni Boldini (7-2)
3) Got Shades (30-1)
4) Outstrip (GB) (4-1)
5) Bobby's Kitten (5-2)
6) Home School (IRE) (30-1)
7) Aotearoa (12-1)
8) Bon Accord (20-1)
9) Wilshire Boulevard (IRE) (8-1)
10) Ontology (30-1)
11) Poker Player (12-1)
12) Shamshon (IRE) (12-1)
13) Bashart (6-1)
At 5-2, Bobby's Kitten is a slightly more solid morning-line choice than Ever Rider above. He enters this race off of a runaway victory in a stakes at Belmont, but faces some tough, well-bred company. There's a plethora of European-based horses here to face him, led by Outstrip, a gray son of stakes winner Asi Siempre. Last out, Outstrip was third behind War Command in the Dewhurst (G1), but before that, he was a commanding presence in the Champagne (G2) at Doncaster. Also here are Giovanni Boldini, who won an Irish listed stakes last time out in nice fashion, and two Irish-bred stakes winners in Wilshire Boulevard and Shamshon. Not to be forgotten are Bobby's Kitten's American contemporaries, the best of which is Bashart, who won the With Anticipation (G2) at Saratoga this summer before losing to Poker Player in the Bourbon (G3) at Keeneland. Finally, there is Aotearoa, who comes back after thumping Diamond Bachelor here at Santa Anita in the listed Zuma Beach Stakes.
Although Bobby's Kitten is another talented pick of the litter owned by the Ramsey family, there is value in looking away from the favorite, even after that impressive last start. There is certainly a lot of Euro class to pick and choose from; the familiar Godolphin vs. Coolmore narrative manifests itself once more in Outstrip matched against the more humbly bred Giovanni Boldini. Longshot Bon Accord hung late in his last outing, a third in the Bourbon, but he has the pedigree to get the distance. The 30-1 shots all drew into the field after being on the also-eligible list; the most intriguing of them, I think, is Got Shades, who comes into this race after a fourth in the Zuma Beach and a couple of nice stakes wins in Louisiana. In the Breeders' Cup, though, sometimes you have to go with your gut. Ever since his name popped up on the pre-entries list, I've had a good feeling about Aotearoa. His closing kick in the Zuma Beach, handily turning back Diamond Bachelor, who is turning into sort of a wise-guy horse for the Juvenile on Saturday, impresses me enough to select him on top here.
7-5-4-13 (Aotearoa - Bobby's Kitten - Outstrip - Bashart)
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (3:05 PM PT)
1) Taptowne (15-1)
2) Golden Ticket (12-1)
3) Hymn Book (15-1)
4) Brujo de Olleros (BRZ) (8-1)
5) Fed Biz (6-1)
6) Broadway Empire (12-1)
7) Alpha (8-1)
8) Holy Lute (20-1)
9) Centralinteligence (15-1)
10) Verrazano (3-1)
11) Pants On Fire (6-1)
12) Goldencents (4-1)
A/E) Easter Gift (15-1)
The third Breeders' Cup race on Friday's card boasts both a competitive and talented field. There's a few three year-olds brave enough to take on their speedy elders here; two of them are the first and second choice in the race. After a disastrous try at ten furlongs in the Travers, Verrazano will make his final career start cutting back to a mile. The morning line favorite is absolutely devastating at shorter distances, but he'll have to fight past his California contemporary Goldencents, who will be coming for him down the stretch. This race also features a renewed rivalry between Alpha and Golden Ticket; the two colts crossed the wire together in the Travers and haven't met in a race since last year's Pennsylvania Derby. Pants on Fire adds some sizzle to this race after a sparkling Ack Ack (G3) win, and Brujo de Olleros seeks a win after a narrow loss to Graydar in the Kelso (G2). It is a star-studded group of horses with credentials nearly as good as their counterparts in Saturday's Classic. It is such an evenly matched field that you have to ponder...who will come out on top?
As with most races, speed may play a huge part in how this event unfolds. Many of these horses like to be on or near the pace, including the favorite, Verrazano. If Big V is 100%, there is a good possibility that he could run away with this race. However, anything can happen, and we must tread lightly, especially in such an evenly matched race as this. If Pants on Fire runs to his last race, he also has a shot at winning. In the past, this race has not been particularly kind to favorites, and that leads me to Brujo de Olleros, an invader from South America who has shown improvement in each of his dirt starts here. And while he may not find his way into the winner's circle against a field such as this, faithful Hymn Book usually finishes well, crossing the wire in the top 3 in 18 of his 25 lifetime starts. It will be a great race, both to watch and bet, and I'll take a little chance here with Team Valor's Brujo de Olleros, who should sit just off a quick pace.
4-10-11-3 (Brujo de Olleros - Verrazano - Pants on Fire - Hymn Book)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (3:50 PM PT)
1) Nesso (20-1)
2) Al Thakhira (GB) (6-1)
3) Colonel Joan (20-1)
4) Kitten Kaboodle (12-1)
5) Granny Mc's Kitten (20-1)
6) Vorda (FR) (4-1)
7) Street Sailing (15-1)
8) Chriselliam (IRE) (6-1)
9) Dancing House (20-1)
10) Clenor (IRE) (8-1)
11) Ready to Act (8-1)
12) Testa Rossi (FR) (8-1)
13) Sky Painter (15-1)
14) My Conquestadory (9-2)
As with the male juvenile turf race, this is a very competitive field with talented horses on two continents. The early favorite is Vorda, a Group 1 winner who finished second to colt No Nay Never in the Prix Morny (G1). She leads the European fillies, a group that also includes stakes winners Chriselliam and Al Thakhira. Popular My Conquestadory, who made her first start a winning one in the Summer Stakes (G2) against males, will have to overcome an unwieldy post 14. Also from Canada is Ready to Act, who looked a sure winner in her last start before shying at the whip and dumping her jockey in mid-stretch. Hopefully she has much better luck this time around. Then there is the home team, with Clenor coming into this race after two stakes wins and Testa Rossi fighting back all challenges at Belmont Park last time out. Colonel Joan and Street Sailing drew into this race off the also-eligible list, and, though they are longshots, could make some noise in this field laden with terrific juvenile fillies. And let's not forget the pair of Kittens, right alongside each other, who both are stakes winners.
Unlike the Juvenile Turf, however, none of these horses give me that "vibe"...that strong feeling about some horses I seem to get mainly around this time. Now is the time for me to be rational, and the rational part of my brain leads me to the favorite, Vorda, who showed an amazing turn of foot in her last start. However, upon replay review, I was even more impressed by Chriselliam, whose closing rush in her last reminded me a lot of Flotilla's late run to win last year's edition of this race. My Conquestadory looked great in her previous two outings, but will have to be special to win from the far outside post. If not for #14, she would probably be my first choice; because of that, she is bumped down to second, behind the fast-closing Chriselliam. Vorda is a special animal, no doubt about that, and she deserves every bit of her favoritism. Ready to Act could be dangerous if she runs to the ability of her last unlucky start. Clenor has done nothing wrong in Southern California. Indeed, it is a tough race, but I'll try my best to just pick four.
8-14-6-10 (Chriselliam - My Conquestadory - Vorda - Clenor)
Breeders' Cup Distaff (4:35 PM PT)
1) Street Girl (30-1)
2) Authenticity (8-1)
3) Close Hatches (6-1)
4) Royal Delta (8-5)
5) Beholder (5-2)
6) Princess of Sylmar (9-5)
The marquee race of the day is laden with intriguing storylines - Royal Delta going for three Distaff wins, an unprecedented feat; Princess of Sylmar looking to gallop into history as a possible Horse of the Year; Beholder seeking to hold them all off, running wire to wire. Although it plays host to a short field, the Breeders' Cup Distaff is, as always, a stellar race full of the finest dirt fillies and mares in the nation. There's been some buzz in the mornings in the way that Close Hatches looks, and we know that the old warrior Authenticity will run her race. Finally, there is Street Girl, an outsider looking in, but who ran an honest race in the Cotillion behind Close Hatches last time out. Four three year-olds, two older mares. It is a race in which no one wants to see any one horse lose. The chance of a six-way dead heat, however, is, of course, unlikely. So whose name will enter the record books in 2013?
We all know that Royal Delta went wire to wire to win last year's edition, and, when she doesn't inherit the lead early, she doesn't fare too well. Beholder just happens to have the same running style, with similar results. It all comes down to who sits off who or if they both choose to go after each other. That may turn into a pace meltdown which, even if the speed bias from last year's Breeders' Cup is still prevalent, may not end well for both of them. If that happens, it sets up for pace stalkers like Princess of Sylmar and Authenticity. And what of Close Hatches? She is the only filly to beat Princess of Sylmar this year, doing so in wire to wire fashion. Since then, she's proven that she doesn't necessarily need the early lead to win, so she may be closer to Princess of Sylmar than she will be to Royal Delta and Beholder. It is a tough decision here in which my heart and head are torn. My brain tells me to pick Beholder; deep in my heart, I will be rooting for Princess of Sylmar. Gary Stevens has been high on Beholder, and I trust the judgement of a Hall of Fame jockey. She is a dynamo at Santa Anita and may have better tactical speed than her older rival. If, however, she gets caught in a duel with Royal Delta that burns her out, the Princess may just wear them both down, and earn racing's crown at last. Close Hatches is looking good enough lately to hit the board, if not win.
5-6-4-3 (Beholder - Princess of Sylmar - Royal Delta - Close Hatches)
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