The Belmont is called "The Test of the Champion," and rightly so. Those wide, sweeping turns are daunting enough without the formidable distance of twelve furlongs. In years past, twelve furlongs was a middle distance, a comfortable length for horses to run. As history progresses, however, the distances are getting shorter. Only in turf racing do you see regular twelve furlong races carded, and even then, they are slowly being cut back. A twelve furlong dirt race is a complete anomaly in today's day and age, which is what makes the Belmont Stakes so special - a throwback to a tougher era.
Nowadays, it's not so much as a race of talent as it is a question of who can stagger home first. Sure, some horses relish the mile and a half, despite going on to never run that long again. However, there have been years where sprint-bred horses have waltzed home lazily to call the carnations their own. This is evidenced by the recent final times - for three consecutive years, we've had race times of 2:30 or over. The last time that occurred was in the '40s, when horses were bred to go a little longer and yet a little slower.
So in this Belmont field of 14, who has the best chance of staying the twelve furlongs? It's not all about pedigree - last year, the leggy Union Rags outdistanced his speedy Dixie Union top half to win the Belmont in gritty fashion - but bloodlines play a huge part.
1) Frac Daddy
Ken McPeek stated on Twitter today that his goal was to send Frac Daddy to the front. It is clear by this statement that horsemen don't want another nightmare pace scenario as there was in Baltimore, when Gary Stevens and Oxbow all but stole the race out front. This gray colt will give the Preakness winner some company, but can he last? The first glance at his pedigree is not promising. The Storm Cat line through Hennessy is not exactly one that boasts stamina, and Scat Daddy has sired distance horses, but mostly on turf and synthetic. Although his top half seems rather speedy, Frac Daddy is out of a Skip Away mare. Skip Away finished a strong second to Touch Gold in the Belmont, defeating Derby and Preakness winner Silver Charm. If you look even farther back, he is inbred to Nashua and Damascus, two top-notch Belmont winners. Like Union Rags last year, Frac Daddy has speed on top and a good base of stamina on the bottom. He could stay the distance, if he doesn't burn himself out on the front end.
2) Freedom Child
This son of Malibu Moon splashed home last time out in the Peter Pan Stakes, winning by 13 powerful lengths. That win sparked a buzz in the racing world - could this colt be Orb's greatest competitor in the Belmont? Before the Peter Pan, he was a non-starter in the Wood Memorial. Albertrani has been all but doing rain dances for Freedom Child, who clearly loves the slop. Even if the track is sloppy, will he get the distance? Both Orb and Freedom Child bear the weight of Malibu Moon and his question marks as a distance sire. However, Malibu Moon is by A.P. Indy, a Belmont winner, who in turn was sired by Seattle Slew, another Belmont winner. A.P. Indy not only won the Belmont, he relished the distance, winning in a speedy time of 2:26 1/5. Only Secretariat and Easy Goer went faster. If that confidence boost isn't enough, Freedom Child's damsire is Deputy Minister. The stallion, though a speedster on the racetrack, has instilled stamina in his foals. He is responsible for four Belmont winners as either a sire or damsire, three of them as a damsire. If Freedom Child's Peter Pan win was not a fluke, and it does indeed rain on Satuday, he could be dangerous.
3) Overanalyze
Todd Pletcher's Arkansas Derby winner is set to run a big one after a not-so-good showing in the Derby five weeks ago. He boasts a win at Belmont - the Futurity Stakes of last year - and has been training marvelously up to this race. Like last year's winner Union Rags, this colt is sired by Dixie Union, and that fact alone should give him some play at the windows by people looking for lightning to strike twice. His bottom line is pretty solid as well. He is out of an Unaccounted For mare. Unaccounted For is from the Damascus line; Damascus was sired by Sword Dancer, and both of them are Belmont winners. Overanalyze is also inbred to Gold Digger, the dam of Mr. Prospector, and while she herself never ran at a long distance, her son was responsible for being the tail-male ancestor of 15 Belmont Stakes winners in 31 years. The problem with Overanalyze is his consistency. He wins one, he throws in a clunker. He wins one, he throws in a clunker. If you go by that fact, though, he's set to run a good one on Saturday.
4) Giant Finish
The name Dutrow associated with the Belmont Stakes might leave a bad taste in one's mouth after the debacle that was Big Brown and his performance in the 2008 version of the classic. Luckily, it's not Rick but Tony Dutrow this time, bringing his stakes-placed colt Giant Finish. The chestnut racehorse caused quite a stir during Derby week as a last-minute addition to the field. Despite all that, he finished tenth, beating horses like Verrazano and Goldencents. Now, he returns to his home state as one of the longest shots on the board. Giant Finish is by Frost Giant, a Grade 1 winner at ten furlongs from the Giant's Causeway line - a good source of stamina. It doesn't hurt that he's inbred to two Belmont Stakes winners, Seattle Slew and Secretariat - the latter of which clearly loved twelve furlongs. Sprinkled throughout his female side are good distance horses like Princequillo and Nashua. He may not be the caliber of these horses, but he won't be staggering home.
5) Orb
Shug McGaughey has done a marvelous job keeping this horse in tip-top shape. Even after the Preakness, where he put in a lackluster off-the-board performance, the colt still looks great. At Belmont, in the Janney colors, he will be a popular favorite. He is inbred to Mr. Prospector, as so many of these horses are. Orb is also from the A.P. Indy line, just like Freedom Child. Unbridled, his damsire, is also a strong source of stamina through Fappiano. Orb is from a strong Phipps female family anchored by Shenanigans, the dam of Ruffian. The brilliant dark bay filly, described by some as a "freak," handled Belmont Park's twelve furlong distance with ease in her last win before her death, the Coaching Club American Oaks. What Orb really needs is luck in this race. A clear path to the outside and lack of trouble will be the key to his success. I, myself, believe that he is the best of his crop and that he'll come through with a win at Belmont. The last horse to win both the Derby and the Belmont Stakes was Thunder Gulch in 1995.
6) Incognito
Last time out, Incognito was a distant fifth in the Peter Pan Stakes, won by Freedom Child. Kiaran McLaughlin, who won in 2006 with Jazil, is deciding to take a shot again. This gray colt is one of the most beautifully bred in the field. He is by A.P. Indy, who has already been mentioned for his Belmont prowess. Incognito is out of the beautiful gray Octave, who won the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks when it was still twelve furlongs. Although she was sired by Unbridled's Song, a sire noted to get offspring that can't last through the rigors of a racing career, she had a strong female family rooted in both American and European distance tradition. Names like Caro, Tom Rolfe and Santa Claus are there. In fact, this colt is inbred to Caro, who was a Grade 1 winner at just over ten furlongs. Incognito is also inbred to Bold Ruler, the fleet-footed sire of Secretariat. Incognito has the pedigree to last twelve furlongs, but does he have the class to run twelve furlongs with this crowd?
7) Oxbow
No matter what happened, someone always kept an eye out for Oxbow. Even after he strung together losses in the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby, there were still those who had faith in him, including his legendary trainer-jockey combination, D. Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens. On Preakness day, Stevens guided him to an easy lead and an easy victory, holding off all challengers and galloping out by open lengths. It was just a game for the pair at Baltimore, but it won't be so easy this Saturday. If Frac Daddy and Palace Malice push him, can he last the distance? His pedigree was just right for the Derby distance, ten furlongs, but can it get him to twelve? His sire, Awesome Again, was truly awesome at ten furlongs. His offspring have also excelled at ten furlongs. Oxbow's biggest plus, as far as bloodlines go, is Paynter, his brother in blood (both of them being by Awesome Again and out of full sisters to Tiznow). Paynter finished a game second to Union Rags last year after leading the whole way with moderate fractions. If Oxbow can get away with fractions like his blood brother, they may not be able to catch him again. However, I find it highly unlikely that Stevens and his bay colt will get no pressure. Orb isn't the only one with a target on his back this time.
8) Midnight Taboo
Repole has three in this race, including this very lightly raced colt. In three starts, Midnight Taboo has won once and finished second twice, and enters this race after training well at Belmont Park. At first glance, his pedigree looks very good for distance. While his sire, Langfuhr, was a sprinter, he is well known for siring distance horses. He has sired stakes winners that have won or placed at twelve furlongs, including Wando, Jambalaya and Lawyer Ron. Midnight Taboo's bottom half boasts Thunder Gulch, a Belmont Stakes winner who just happens to be his damsire. Also there is Relaunch, a branch of the In Reality line that is known for injecting stamina into bloodlines. While his pedigree looks good for the distance, there are still a lot of question marks surrounding this colt. It seems that his entry into this race is more of a gut reaction than anything, and his 30-1 is well-deserved.
9) Revolutionary
Revolutionary was one of the most popular horses going into the Derby, and his odds remained low throughout the day. He finished a strong third in the race, making his way up the rail. This gritty colt is reminiscent of old warriors of old, as he has overcome tremendous obstacles to win some of his races. That tenacity will do nothing but help him in the Test of the Champion. His sire, the belated War Pass, was a champion two year-old that couldn't hold up to the rigors of a three year-old season. He has a solid female family responsible for racers like Horse of the Year Mineshaft. Revolutionary has six Belmont Stakes winners in the first five generations of his pedigree alone. If there was ever a deserving second choice - Orb is at 3-1; he is at 9-2 - Revolutionary would be it. He's going to be dangerous, especially with Javier Castellano on his back.
10) Will Take Charge
This horse is one of three to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown. The other two are the two classic winners, Orb and Oxbow. D. Wayne Lukas' handsome chestnut colt was well-regarded going into the Derby but wound up finishing up the track. There were people who liked him in the Preakness, as well, but he also put in a lackluster performance. Now he is back to contest the mile and a half Belmont. What is there, if anything, in this colt's pedigree that suggests him going this distance? He is inbred to Fappiano, but, in my opinion, through the wrong strains. His sire, Unbridled's Song, was previously mentioned as a sire whose offspring tend to be rather fragile. The other source of Fappiano in this colt's pedigree is through Rubiano, a champion sprinter. Take Charge Lady, Will Take Charge's dam, was a brilliant racemare but never won at a distance farther than a mile and an eighth, and her sire, Dehere, was a champion two year-old at sprint distances. Will Take Charge is a big colt who has taken a while to grow into himself. Could that be the excuse for his poor performances the last couple of races?
11) Vyjack
Vyjack is back, and, as I found out yesterday, people still back him. To me, Vyjack looks to hit a wall after maybe eight and a half furlongs. In the Wood Memorial, he ran an uninspiring third, but came out of the race with lung problems. In the Derby, he drew the horrendous post 20 and ran poorly, finishing 18th of 19. Now he comes into this race with a new jockey, as Gomez was switched in favor of Julien Leparoux. The mile and a half Belmont, I feel, will not be to his liking. He is by Into Mischief, a quick, sprinting son of router Harlan's Holiday. Into Mischief's other 2013 Derby runner, Goldencents, is being pointed towards the seven furlong King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga. In his top half, you see names like Icecapade and Clever Trick, brilliant sprinters. His damsire is Stravinsky, a fleet-footed sprinter from Europe who sires good milers. The only distance link really going for Vyjack is a small bit of Princequillo. I don't think this horse wants to go twelve furlongs. He will do much better at races at a mile and a mile and a sixteenth, I think. Now watch him prove me wrong.
12) Palace Malice
Does anyone know whether Palace Malice runs with blinkers this time or not? In the Derby, using the equipment for the first time, he rocketed to the front and set blazing fractions that paved Orb's way to victory. The only horse to finish well sitting off of his brutal pace was Oxbow, who came back to steal the Preakness. Now Palace Malice is back - what's his strategy? Will he keep Frac Daddy - and possibly Oxbow - company on the lead, or will he settle? Because if he can settle, this colt's pedigree is mint for going a distance. Curlin, his sire, gave Rags to Riches all she had in the Belmont and wound up finishing a strong second. His dam's side is even better for going long. His damsire is Royal Anthem, who won the Canadian International over twelve furlongs. Royal Anthem was sired by Theatrical, a two time Breeders' Cup Turf winner. Also seen in this part of the pedigree is Epsom Derby winner Roberto as well as Belmont Stakes winner Damascus. There is twelve furlongs everywhere on Palace Malice's female side, and if there was ever a horse bred for this distance, it would be him. Now we just wait and see if the colt burns himself out, like he did five weeks ago.
13) Unlimited Budget
Girls just wanna have fun, right? Moving past that painful '80s pop reference, Rosie Napravnik aboard the filly Unlimited Budget will be the biggest story on Saturday. They're up against history - Rosie is attempting to become only the second female rider in history to win a Triple Crown race, 20 years after Julie Crone won the Belmont on Colonial Affair. There have been only four fillies to win the Belmont Stakes in its long history, including Rags to Riches, who did it in 2007. Rags to Riches, a half-sister to the previous year's winner, Jazil, had it in her blood to win. Does Unlimited Budget? She is a daughter of Street Sense, a Derby and Travers winner brilliant at middle distance races. This filly is the stallion's highest earner so far. Her female side is an interesting one, with not many familiar names etched into it. Her damsire, Valid Appeal, is from a sireline tracing back to Man O' War. Interestingly enough, there is no inbreeding in the first five generations of her pedigree. Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, also led Rags to Riches to victory, but this filly needs to outstay her largely middle distance pedigree if she wants to play a part in this race.
14) Golden Soul
I can't imagine how proud Charles Fipke must have been to see his longshot homebred Golden Soul come running down the stretch to finish a game second behind Orb in the Derby. The chestnut colt exceeded all expectations that day, and he looks to do so again at much shorter odds of 10-1. Golden Soul has a lot of inbreeding back a few generations, including a few strains of Belmont winner Native Dancer, through blue hen mare Natalma and the speedy juvenile Raise a Native. Despite racing so little and so short, Raise a Native was responsible for many classic winners; he was the grandsire of Belmont Stakes legend Affirmed and the sire of his greatest rival, Alydar. Also inbred in this pedigree is Nasrullah, who sired Belmont Stakes winners Jaipur and Nashua and was the grandsire of Secretariat, and Hail to Reason, who despite a short-lived career sired Epsom Derby winner Roberto, whose bloodlines are known for their toughness. Golden Soul's sire, a handsome bay stallion named Perfect Soul, is by the sensational international sire Sadler's Wells and is also the sire of Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner Perfect Shirl. There is nothing in this colt's pedigree to suggest that he shouldn't get the distance - he should do just fine, and proved five weeks ago that he can hang with this crowd.
Will this year's edition of the Belmont be one for the ages? Or will it again feature glorified sprinters staggering home by sheer luck? Looking at the pedigrees in this field, I can't imagine the second one happening, but you never know. Personally, I'd just like them to crack the 2:30 mark.
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