Stephen's Tips for Australia's Friday Card

TIPS (@SW064351)

 

BEST BET

Rosehill Race 4, No. 1 Imperil

Rock hard fit and racing well. Sure to be prominent once again and take plenty of catching.

SECOND BEST

Flemington Race 2, No. 4 Lady Of Harrods

Unplaced in both attempts down the straight but this is an easier assignment. Keep safe.

LONGSHOT

Rosehill Race 6, No. 12 Gangster's Choice

Freshened and up in class. Has an excellent first-up record. Each-way claims.

LAY

Flemington Race 8, No. 7 Awasita

Well supported but won't get as cheap a run up front this time. Happy to risk.

Emily's 13 in '13 - Dubai Sheema Classic

Every day, from today until December 31st, I will be talking about my 13 favorite races in 2013.  Some may not be on the "best races of the year" lists; these were simply events that made me feel good, got my blood pumping, or even allowed me to shed a tear or two.  These races are in chronological order, not order of preference.

Without further ado, let's begin with the first of my favorites list, the Dubai Sheema Classic in late March:




I was a fan of the pair of St. Nicholas Abbey and Joseph O'Brien ever since their confident victory in 2011's Breeders' Cup Turf. The tall, strapping stallion and his equally tall, strapping lad of a jockey seemed to make a good team, winning Grade 1 races around the globe.  In Dubai, St. Nick was looking for victory after the previous year's defeat to top stayer Cirrus des Aigles.

It would not be easy.  He would face a tough field that included Japan's 2012 Horse of the Year Gentildonna.  A remarkable filly, she had captured her country's Triple Tiara and turned back several challenges from older males, including champion Orfevre.  Now she was in Dubai, and she was there to win.  The two broke from the starting gate, chasing French filly Shareta on the lead.  It was sure to be a phenomenal showdown.

While Gentildonna was carried wide on the first turn, St. Nicholas Abbey settled in nicely behind the leader under O'Brien's confident hands.  The leggy bay stallion slowly began to edge in front of Shareta as the horses cruised around the final bend, with Gentildonna not too far behind.  In the stretch, anxious eyes watched as the Japanese filly drew into perfect position to collar the new leader, but St. Nick still had something left.  Under firm urging, he turned back the challenge of Gentildonna and began to pull away.  There was daylight between him and the filly at the wire.

The Sheema Classic should have been the race that set him up for another marvelous year, and for a while, that seemed to be the case.  In June, he became the first horse in history to win three Coronation Cups, and was training for Ascot at Ballydoyle when he fractured a pastern.  His future still hangs in the balance as he strives to not only recover from that injury but also to battle that disease we all love to hate, laminitis.

I always enjoy watching horses I love succeed on an international stage, and this certainly was no exception.  For all the sadness I still feel over St. Nick's injury and retirement, there is a certain sweet joy I feel upon watching this race unfold all over again.

Stephen and Emily Take On Hollywood Futurity Day

Well, this is it.  Hollywood's last Futurity card will be in the books tomorrow evening.  Since I've sadly failed to keep up with Hollywood this meet as well as I should, I figured I would make up for it by handicapping tomorrow's - or, since it's nearly 1 am, today's - card.  Who better to join my fun than punter Stephen Wong?  Here are his selections for tomorrow's Early Pick 4 (races 2-5).

EARLY PICK 4 (@SW064351)
1, 2, 5 / 3, 6 / 2, 4, 6 / 3, 4, 6, 10 (72 units)

It makes me feel much better about my own handicapping to see that my top selections for these races are represented in his choices as well!  Fingers crossed, Stephen...

EMILY'S SELECTIONS
Race 1 - #6 Circa'sgoldengear
Consistent horse; like him best in this short field in the opener.
Race 2 - #2 Lil Cheyenne
Finished a strong second last out and could improve 2nd off the trainer switch.
Race 3 - #3 Segway
Stretches out and jumps in class but has the pedigree and talent to be dangerous.
Race 4 - #2 Zuboff
Simply put - the horse to beat.
Race 5 - #10 Salsita
Finished a nice second in a similar race last out.
Race 6 - #2 Street Status
A huge threat dropping in class after nice effort last out.
Race 7 - #6 Soi Phet
Slightly regressed after a career best effort two back; should come back strong here.
Race 8 - #3 Uncle Dick
Is due to improve 2nd off the layoff.
Race 9 - #2 Tamarando
The more experienced of the Hollendorfer duo; will come running late.
Race 10 - #9 Chilada 
Has a good pedigree for grass (trying it for first time); closed well in her last start.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow and enjoy Hollywood's last Futurity card!

Pedigree Profile - Don't Forget Masda

The Fair Play - Mahubah mating always brings to mind its finest product - the champion racehorse Man O' War.  The big red colt put his opponents to shame and shattered numerous American and world speed records, eventually defeating the highly regarded first Triple Crown winner, Sir Barton.

However, it is much too easy to forget that Mahubah was sometimes known as "Fair Play's wife," and there was a handful of other foals from that match.  The first, born two years before Man O' War, was a chestnut filly named Masda.  Thought to be very talented, Masda was a six-time winner in 23 starts and was stakes-placed at two and four years of age.

In 1919, she was caught up in a pre-race scandal; it was believed that someone looking to hurt her chances in the contest had cut her tendons with a knife.  Later, that suspicion was covered up as it was more likely a stray wire that caused the minor injury.  That year, Man O' War was just beginning his meteoric rise to the top of the record books.

Masda went to the breeding shed and produced nine foals, five of them fillies.  Three of her offspring were stakes winners.  Though she didn't turn out quite the producer her brother was - Man O' War eclipsed his siblings in every possible manner - her daughters paved the way for her name to survive in pedigrees today.

The most important of her daughters was Incandescent.  This bay filly was by Chicle, a grandson of the legendary Australian champion Carbine.  Incandescent won thirteen times and produced some solid runners; four of her foals ran more than 100 times, with stakes winner Fuego the most experienced of all, running 173(!) times.  Despite the longevity of her male offspring, the foal that would make the most impact was a sickly filly named Igual.

Igual is Spanish for "equal."  This turned out to be a misnomer, for none of her siblings could match her in the breeding shed.  Although her record was shaky at first, her first of many foals by Kentucky Derby winner Bold Venture would cement her name in racing history.

Known as the "club-footed comet" because of a deformed hoof, Assault made headlines in post-war America when he swept the Triple Crown series, becoming the seventh horse to do so.  He was a Horse of the Year in 1946; besides the classic races, he won events like the Dwyer and the Pimlico Special.  Sterile, Assault lived out his retirement days in peace at King Ranch and died at the old age of twenty-eight.

Igual was the dam of a Triple Crown winner; a little while later, she would become the ancestress of a horse that would spoil the party of a recent Triple Crown winner.

Prove Out was by stakes-winner Graustark and out of Equal Venture, an unraced full sister to Assault.  He was a good racehorse to begin with, but on a sloppy track at Saratoga, his name became famous.  In the 1973 Woodward Stakes, he would face Secretariat, the world-famous Triple Crown winner who was still smarting from a loss to Onion in the Whitney Handicap (then a Grade 2).  Prove Out was 16-1 but defeated Secretariat by open lengths.  Later, Prove Out would also vanquish Secretariat's stablemate Riva Ridge in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Unlike Assault, Prove Out was not sterile.  He was the damsire of Hall of Fame racemare Miesque, who later became the dam of world-renowed sire Kingmambo.  Masda's legacy lives on through Kingmambo and his many famous descendants.

Pedigree Profiles: We Three Kings of Thoroughbred Lore

Although dozens of horses, both native and foreign, became the progenitors of the English Thoroughbred, three names have been engraved into history books more than any other.  These three exotic stallions, so different from the sturdy stock of the British Isles, could be considered the forefathers of the breed.  All modern Thoroughbreds trace back to one of these sires through a direct male line; this is why their names are above all others, like cream rising to the top.

The first was a dark stallion brought from Turkey by a Captain Byerley in the last part of the 17th century.  Horse and master fought together in numerous battles for King William, including the famous Battle of the Boyne, and retired together as well.  He became well-known as the Byerley Turk and began to sire some fabulous horses, including Basto, who resided at the same Chatsworth Estate as the great Flying Childers.

A little later down the line, a direct descendant of Byerley's stallion was born that would insure the continuation of his line into the present-day.  Herod - who raced as King Herod - was strikingly handsome and a very nice racehorse, but proved himself truly worthy as a legend in the breeding shed.  His most famous racing son, Highflyer, was undefeated in fourteen starts and stood at stud for Richard Tattersall, the founder of Tattersalls Sales Company.  Herod also sired Florizel, the sire of Diomed, who won the very first English Derby.  Diomed, in turn, was a direct male descendant of Boston and Lexington, a sire and son who were two of the first great American racehorses.

However, Herod's male line - and the Byerley Turk's as well - does not live on to the present day through Highflyer.  Instead, the sireline continues to hang on through another son, Woodpecker, who was a good racehorse and even beat Pot-8-os, Eclipse's most prolific son, on the racetrack.  Horses like the great gray racehorse The Tetrarch and two-time Arc de Triomphe winner Ksar trace their male line back to Woodpecker, as do more recent names like Notnowcato and Dunaden.

The Byerley Turk's male line is by far the smallest of the three, by both numbers and popularity.  The foundation stallion that followed him would create a dynasty to outweigh them both.

Unlike the older Turk, who was a war horse, the Arabian that Thomas Darley smuggled out of Syria was a bay colt of the finest breeding.  The stallion, though seemingly athletic, never raced, and instead stood at stud near Yorkshire, where he covered the finest mares in the area.  His most famous two sons were full brothers, both out of a mare named Betty Leedes and both bred by a Colonel Childers.  One was named Devonshire or Flying Childers; this swift son became the most celebrated racehorse of his time.  The other was Bartlett's Childers, sometimes called Bleeding Childers due to his inability to race or train, breaking blood vessels easily.

Flying Childers sired a number of nice horses, but it was his unraced brother who would continue their sire's male line to the present.  Three generations after Bartlett's Childers, Eclipse was born.  Some consider the chestnut colt, untouchable in 18 starts, to be the greatest racehorse of all time.  Eclipse raced for the charming Irish adventurer Dennis O'Kelly and stood stud for him as well.  It has been said that Eclipse is the tail-male ancestor of nearly every living Thoroughbred, and this statement is not far-fetched in the least.  The line that passes through his son Pot-8-os and then through Waxy, Whalebone, and so on, is the most popular in the world.

Nearly all of our prized racehorses trace back to horses like Cyllene, Eclipse and, of course, the Darley Arabian.  There is one last sire-line, however, that is still represented in today's breed.

The last of the three founding fathers of all Thoroughbreds was brought to life in Marguerite Henry's book King of the Wind.  Though many of the stories in that book seem to be legend - claims of his being a carthorse in France has never been verified - it is true that he changed from hand to hand before settling in with the Earl of Godolphin, who gave him his name.  Like the other two foundation sires, he never raced but became a great sire of racehorses.  His three greatest sons - Cade, Lath, and Regulus - gave their sire's name great weight amongst his peers in the breeding shed by becoming some of the greatest racehorses of their generation.

It was Cade, though, that would carry the Godolphin Arabian's male line to the present-day.  His son Matchem was an older contemporary of Eclipse and Highflyer, and all three became great sires.  Matchem's son Conductor was very important in the breeding shed; he was the direct male descendant of England's first Triple Crown winner, West Australian.  Through West Australian came a sireline that many are quite familiar with - first Spendthrift, then Hastings, then Fair Play and finally the magnificent Man O' War, who demolished several American speed records and who is lauded as one of the greatest racehorses of the 20th century.

Fittingly, Man O' War is the main source of the Godolphin Arabian male line that still remains.  His son War Relic sired Intent, who was the forerunner of the In Reality sire-line, a family that eventually led to two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow.  The popularity of Tiznow and his sons have brought this line back into the spotlight, and it seems to not be going anywhere for a while, at least in the United States.

There were many other foreign stallions imported to England in the 17th and 18th centuries with the intent of improving the blood of the racehorse.  These names - names like Hautboy, Snake and the Lister Turk - can be found in almost every pedigree.  But what seems to mark a truly great sire is his ability to produce great sons, and in this regard, the three kings of the Thoroughbred breed left their mark on horses born centuries after their death.

Pedigree Profiles - The Prevalence of Northern Dancer in Modern Pedigrees

In any sort of selective breeding, an outcross is adding new bood.  As Thoroughbreds have stayed true to their name, tracing back to only a handful of similar ancestors, outcrossing is used to make sure one horse doesn't pop up in a pedigree more times than he or she should.  While line-breeding is still popular, the word outcross holds a positive ring nowadays, as racehorses have become saturated with certain sires and bloodlines.

It is nearly impossible to find a horse without Native Dancer in its pedigree.  The gray classic winner is the forerunner of several important sirelines and certainly left his mark on female families as well.  As it is difficult to find a modern Thoroughbred free of Native Dancer, we look instead to the popularity of a son of his daughter Natalma - Northern Dancer.

Northern Dancer came close to winning the Triple Crown of 1964, but was vanquished, like so many others, in the Belmont Stakes.  He avenged that loss by becoming, arguably, the 20th century's greatest sire.  At one point, the regal bay stallion commanded a $1 million stud fee, a half-million more than any other stallion before or after him.  Decades later, his many great sons enjoy as much fame as he - Sadler's Wells, Danzig, Nureyev, Dixieland Band, and others play a part in this vast list.

Now, nearly fifty years after Northern Dancer entered stud, he is in pedigrees with nearly as much frequency as his damsire.  All of the last five Kentucky Derby winners had the sire somewhere in their pedigree; the same can be said of the last five Kentucky Oaks winners and also the last five English Derby winners.  Most of these carried Northern Dancer more than once in their bloodlines.  This Northern Dancer breeding is not at all uncommon.

Though line-breeding as an idea has merit, we look now, five or six generations after Northern Dancer's descendants were born, and see an overabundance of his bloodline.  Certainly Native Dancer is much more prevalent, especially through sons like Raise a Native, but with Northern Dancer blood pooled in so many successful stallions and broodmares, he may become as much of a permanent part of the bloodline as Native Dancer or even ancestors like Pharos and Eclipse.

Out of 43 featured new stallions in The Bloodhorse's Stallion Register, only three had pedigrees completely free of the name Northern Dancer.  They are three stallions from completely different backgrounds with completely different racing records, yet they all share this defining characteristic, so rare in today's modern Thoroughbred.

Fort Larned
E Dubai - Arlucea (Broad Brush)
It is interesting that the first horse we talk about here is last year's Breeders' Cup Classic winner.  Affectionately nicknamed "Big Ugly," he is a grandson of two-time Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Bayakoa (Consultant's Bid), who herself was from sturdy Argentinian female lines.  Fort Larned's sire, E Dubai, was once the property of Godolphin Racing and Darley Stud, but now resides in Pennsylvania.  Fort Larned is by far his most successful runner.

You will find Native Dancer in Fort Larned's pedigree; he traces back to the gray stallion directly through his sireline.  The great Nashua is found twice in this pedigree, as is Fleet Nasrullah - another son of Nasrullah - and Turn-To, the progenitor of the Hail to Reason line.  Fort Larned stands at Adena Springs in Kentucky for $15,000.

I Want Revenge
Stephen Got Even - Meguial (Roy)
It has been nearly five years since the morning this colt was scratched from the Kentucky Derby.  He was the morning-line favorite, the impressive winner of the Wood Memorial three weeks before, and he seemed destined to wear the roses.  After that soft tissue injury was discovered, he never was quite the same horse in his sporadic returns to the track.   Now this dark bay stallion, who could have been a champion, awaits a stud career.  He is from the A.P. Indy sireline, which traces back to Bold Ruler and his sire Nasrullah.  Like Fort Larned, he is also from South American female lines.

Unlike Fort Larned, however, he has no inbreeding in the first five generations of his pedigree.  You only find Native Dancer once, and that's through his damsire, Roy, who is a son of Fappiano (Mr. Prospector).  Though what could have been a glorious career was severely abbreviated, he is an intriguing outcross for mares heavily laden with Northern Dancer blood.  I Want Revenge is at Pauls Mill in Kentucky for $10,000.

World Renowned
A.P. Indy - Splendid Blended (Unbridled's Song)
This last stallion seems very out-of-place after the two distinguished racehorses before him.  Unlike Fort Larned or I Want Revenge, he never won a Grade 1 event, let alone a stakes race.  He won only twice in his life, and both of those were claiming events at Santa Anita.  It looks as if he was given a chance at stud due to his nice bloodlines.  A.P. Indy needs no introduction; dam Splendid Blended was a two-time Grade 1 winner and daughter of Unbridled's Song, a Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion.

World Renowned's dam also traces back to Fappiano, who in turn traces back to Native Dancer through Raise A Native.  You can find two strains of Bold Ruler - through sons Boldnesian and Secretariat - in this pedigree.  While his accomplishments pale in comparison to the two stallions before him, his bloodlines hold just as much weight.  World Renowned stands at stud at Brazeau Thoroughbred Farms in California for $2,500.

Just three out of 43 featured new stallions.  That number could very well be zero in a decade.  While inbreeding is nothing new in Thoroughbred breeding, especially if you look back to the first great racehorses, it is certainly a subject to study and scrutinize.  The effect of this excess Northern Dancer blood, though it may not be felt for some time, might negatively limit the gene pool.

Game On Dude; Will Take Charge Clash in Clark.

Throughout the evening, I've had the pleasure of high speed Internet (as opposed to the HughesNet we've struggled with for a few weeks), browsing through Hong Kong racing forms, and watching a Twitter dialogue unfold over one hot topic - Game on Dude vs. Will Take Charge.  It is a match-up evenly divided between sides, with some favoring the elder's tactical speed and others expecting the sophomore to come running late.

Let me just say one thing - we are lucky to be even having this debate!  In this day and age, when horses often either retire or take a rest after the Breeders' Cup, it's nice to see some of the big guns going out on a limb to either win or secure year-end championships.

Clark Handicap (Friday, November 29th; 5:35 ET)
1. Game On Dude, M. Smith, B Baffert, 126
2. Finnegans Wake, J. Leparoux, D Romans, 116
3. Bourbon Courage, C. Lanerie, K Gorder, 117
4. Golden Ticket, R. Albarado, K McPeek, 120
5. Prayer for Relief, R. Santana, Jr., S Asmussen, 118
6. Easter Gift, J. Rosario, C. Brown, 116
7. Will Take Charge, L. Saez, D W Lukas, 123
8. Our Double Play, F. Torres, P Bauer, 113
9. Jaguar Paw, S. Bridgmohan, S. Lyster, 115

These two will be carrying the top weights in the field, with Game On Dude at 126 and Will Take Charge at a slightly lower 123.  They both exit the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) won by Mucho Macho Man, but each of them have different stories to tell regarding that race - while Game On Dude, the expected winner, puttered out at the top of the stretch after sitting off the pace, Will Take Charge came within inches of denying Mucho Macho Man the victory.

If Game On Dude gets an easy early lead and is still there at the far turn, it might be "game over" for his younger rival.  However, if he is pressed, or somehow loses that lead, Will Take Charge could do what his name suggests. 

A win in this Grade 1 event would put Game On Dude's name back on top for Horse of the Year honors, with wins in all three of California's prestigious Grade 1 handicap events as well.  A win by Will Take Charge could cement a three year-old title for the Unbridled's Song colt, especially if fellow sophomore Goldencents throws a clunker in the Cigar Mile (G1).  These championships on the line, among other things, are what make this debate so hot.

They are not without a strong supporting cast.  Prayer for Relief, a fairly consistent graded stakes runner, is here, as is Golden Ticket, the strong runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) behind Goldencents.  Could either of those two - or the other handful entered in the race - steal the spotlight from the headliners?

Familiar narratives play out here - younger versus older, front-runner versus closer, Baffert versus Lukas, and so on and so forth.  Which of these two will come out on top?  Judging by the looks of Twitter, I don't think there's an agreeable answer for that question.